Q4 smartphone shipments will see 7.3% y-o-y growth, says IDC. “The tide has finally turned, ” says IDC’s Nabila Popal.

The market recovery will continue in 2024 with 3.8% growth expected, followed by low single-digit growth for 2022-27 for a 1.4% five-year CAGR.

For the whole of 2023,  smartphone shipments are forecast to decline 3.5% y-o-y to 1.16 billion units.

Smartphone ASP is expected to rise 5.5% in 2023 to $438, marking a fourth consecutive year of growth as the premium market continues to grow across all regions.

However, ASP growth is expected to taper off and gradually decline to $396 by 2027, which remains higher than prior forecasts.

iOS market share grew 0.6% growth in Q3, achieving a record share of 19.6% this year, while Android is forecast to decline 4.4%.

Over the long term, Android will grow slightly faster than iOS, increasing its share of the market to 81.3% by the end of the forecast period.